Game Preview: New Mexico vs (#22) UCLA

The first test for this Lobo team comes early in the season as they take on UCLA tonight in Henderson, Nevada. The spread is hovering around UCLA -4 with about 5 hours to tip-off. Here's my take on how the Lobos can compete.

Play with Pace: Mick Cronin's UCLA team likes to play a slow, methodical, half-court game. They want to get the best shot and will take their time to make sure they do so. The Lobos play best when they are in transition and Donovan Dent has the ball in his hand. He is a wizard when it comes to finishing at the rim and he's equally impressive finding open teammates when the defense collapses. If the Lobos can drive the possessions up in this game, they should be able to get some quick buckets. They need to jump out to an early lead and make UCLA play catch-up.

Feed the Post: Nelly Junior Joseph should have a big advantage in the post here as UCLA is still looking for a big man to step up and replace Adem Bona who made the jump to the NBA in the offseason. Nelly has been a monster so far this year on the boards and he should have an advantage over UCLA starters Tyler Bilodeau (6'9") and Eric Dailey Jr (6'8"). The Lobos need to be able to close out possessions by gathering those missed UCLA shots and stifling second chance opportunities. On the other side of the court, Nelly will be looking to turn over that left shoulder and finish with his right... predictable, but effective.

Knock Down Shots: Yes, it's the most obvious thing in the world, right? But the Lobos struggled shooting the three ball against Nicholls, going an abysmal 7-36 from deep. Tru Washington has it going early in the season, but I'll be looking for Borovicinan, Amzil, and Noland to knock down their spot-up opportunities. UCLA will go on a run or two in this game, I'm sure. The Lobos need to be able to stop the bleeding and further silence what will be a pitiful crowd with a couple key threes. Yes, UNM let Nicholls hang around at home, but it was a tale of two teams as Nicholls seemingly couldn't miss from three for stretches where the Lobos couldn't have hit water from a boat. The three ball hasn't been the UCLA calling card of late, and this roster doesn't jump off the page to me as a team that will change that.

My Prediction: The high total of 153.5 tells me that Vegas thinks the Lobos will be marginally successful at driving up the pace in this game. They have the best player on the court in Donovan Dent, and I think you could argue that Nelly is the second best. I think this is one of those games where the Lobos play with nothing to lose. They'll get hot from 3 in an up-and-down game and Donovan Dent will have the ball in his hands late with a chance to put the Lobos up two scores... drive and kick three ball is good. Lobos make an early statement and win this one outright.